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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.