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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the current field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers improving together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still